Demographers Ivan Čipin and Ivo Turk welcome the measures presented this week by Demographics Minister Ivan Šipić and aimed at encouraging parenthood as a positive step forward, but they note that financial support alone is not enough to significantly increase the fertility rate.

Minister Šipić (Homeland Movement) has presented in recent days some of the announced demographic measures that are planned to tackle the demographic collapse that Croatia is facing, and he will present the government’s complete demographic package in early December at a session of the Demographic Revitalisation Council.

So far, it is known that the budget for demographics is being drastically increased – by almost 200%, so that €685 million has been secured for next year. There are three key measures that could result in an increase in the number of newborn children.

Three key measures

As of March next year, the government will double the one-off payment for a newborn child from €309 to €618.

Additionally, the limit on the allowance for employed or self-employed parents for the second six months of parental leave, will be increased from €995 per month to €3,000 net in 2025, which means that the parent will be able to receive the full amount of their salary per month if the salary is up to €3,000. The second six months of the parental leave can be used until the child is eight years old.

The government will also extend the duration of paternity leave from 10 to 15 days for a single child, or from 15 to 30 days for twins or more children born at the same time.

Čipin: Investments in broader infrastructure

Although he believes that migration policies are often more effective in the short term for increasing the population or mitigating depopulation, Ivan Čipin, a professor at the Department of Demography at the Zagreb Faculty of Economics and Business, considers this part of the unveiled measures to be a step in the right direction.

According to him, the increase in the allowance for the second six months of parental leave is especially significant, because, he pointed out, it can help parents with higher incomes, who are often persons with a higher education, and who account for almost half of the parents of newborn children.

This is extremely positive because it could encourage more fathers to take parental leave, he added.

“As parental leave lasts two months longer if both parents share it equally, this measure additionally supports a more equal division of parental responsibilities and provides families with greater support in the first months of a child’s life,” he says.

The extension of paternity leave from 10 to 15 days is also an important step, he says.

However, Čipin notes that for a more long-term effect, it is necessary to invest in broader infrastructure, such as accessible and affordable kindergartens, flexible working conditions, as well as resolve housing issues, following the example of Sweden and France.

“I think the government has recognised this. If one-off benefits for newborn children are being insisted on, then they should be increased for the first child, since then the costs are the highest,” he said.

According to Čipin, this could encourage earlier births and reduce the postponement of parenthood.

He notes that Croatia is currently among the EU countries with the best conditions for parental benefits and tax breaks for dependent children, but there is room for improving child allowance.

“If the reasons for delayed childbirth and low fertility are of a material nature, politics has room for action, including the measures that the government is now introducing. Finally, we should not avoid discussing further improvement of the conditions and measures related to medically assisted reproduction,” he said, proposing the introduction of topics on reproduction and fertility into the school curriculum.

Turk: If problems have been neglected for 50 years, it will take 50 years to solve them

Demographer Ivo Turk from the Ivo Pilar Institute of Social Sciences also welcomes the presented measures.

“I think they are good, but it is difficult to fix our situation, which has been bad for the last 50 years, overnight. That is impossible and there is no magic wand. Any measure that contributes to some kind of improvement is certainly welcome, but we should not expect miracles from them,” he says.

If we have neglected demographic problems for the last 50-60 years, it will take at least that long to get them in order if we work on it, he added.

He hopes that these measures could contribute to the birth of more children, but he reiterates that one or just a few measures will not work miracles, but “a million of them are needed”.

“In principle, this is moving towards improvement, but it is crucial that the measures, once adopted, are implemented for a long time, and not that they are abolished, changed, reprogrammed, or redrawn after a year, because a year in a demographic context is worth a second,” he stressed.

Without revealing details, Šipić also announced loans for entrepreneurs, co-financing relocation costs, and the implementation of projects with the Croatian Chamber of Commerce, the Croatian Employers’ Association and the Croatian Employment Service regarding the employment of immigrants.