Military analyst Marinko Ogorec spoke to N1 on Monday, analysing the failed rebellion started by the chief of the Wagner private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin. According to Ogorec, there are signs that the entire attempt was pre-planned and staged.

“A number of parameters indicate that this event was staged. It only remains to see for whom, and who was behind it. At first we thought it was Putin, but it seems we’re looking at a third source which may be surfacing as an invisible power centre,” Ogorec claimed.

Explaining why he believes the entire rebellion was staged, Ogorec said: “If the footage we have seen is authentic, we see that the Wagner fighters have placed their tanks on towing vehicles in order to transport them to Moscow. That’s not possible in combat situations. You only do that when you have a fully friendly and safe communication so you can transport a tank with no problems. When a tank is on a towing vehicle, it is useless in combat, making it an easy target. The Wagner troops know that, they are hardened fighters.”

“This is one of the details which make it clear this was done by someone who knew they would not be met with serious resistance. That detonation in front of the column was at a decent distance, the column stopped, but continued not long after. Like someone was making a movie,” he added, pointing to another unusual situation: “In the end, they come within 200 kilometres from Moscow, and then all of a sudden decide the rebellion will stop.”

Lukashenko’s role

Ogorec said that some fighting did occur, and reports say there have been victims and military helicopters were downed.

“That probably wasn’t under the control of those who set the whole thing up. What did they want to achieve? Probably to shake up Putin’s regime and the entire military leadership,” he said.

Ogorec spoke of the Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko and the role he played in ending the rebellion.

“Lukashenko would not have done it on his own, without Putin’s approval. I believe Putin asked that Lukashenko step up as mediator so that he can avoid negotiating with Prigozhin himself. That would have been an even greater humiliation for Putin. He could not have put himself in a situation of negotiating with a rebel, especially not after all that strong rhetoric,” Ogorec said.

He believes the incident will have long term effects on the war in Ukraine, further eroding the already weak morale among Russian troops. Ogorec said the rebellion has also shaken up the Russian political and military leadership.

Speaking of the role of the Wagner company in the Ukraine war, Ogorec said: “Wagner soldiers were seen as expendable. Mostly we are talking about criminals, and criminals of the worst sort. They were pushed out there to burn out in the fight, so to speak. Wagner plays a significant role in Africa as well. Will they be used again in the Ukraine war? Probably yes.”

He added it remains unknown who could replace Prigozhin as the Wagner boss.