The number of doctors in primary health care in Croatia will drop by 24% in the next five years, which will make work in the sector impossible, while the number of nurses will drop by an additional 25% due to retirement and lack of new staff, according to the medical and nursing chambers.

On the other hand, projections for the next five years show that the number of hospital doctors will increase by 23% considering data on those who will go into retirement in that period and the number of doctors entering the system.

Number of hospital doctors growing, number of primary health care doctors falling

As in other matters, the profession expects the imminent health system reform, announced by Minister Vili Beros, to provide solutions.

A total of 15,668 doctors work currently in the public and private health sectors, and their number is 9.1% higher compared to 2017. Their average age is 51, and 63% are women.

Hospitals currently employ 9,170 doctors, their average age being 43. Of them, 995 are above the age of 60 and currently 127 pensioners work part-time in the system.

Among the hospital doctors are 6,276 specialists, whose number has increased by about 300 since 2017. Considering that 2,558 are residents, the Croatian Medical Chamber (HLK) estimates that the number of specialists in hospitals will grow by 23% in the next five years.

The situation is quite different in primary health care, where the number of doctors is expected to fall by 24% in the next five years considering the current number of only 236 residents.

The situation is particularly critical in family medicine, with only 131 doctors being trained for family doctors, including 122 who are already team leaders. The number of doctors in that area of medicine is estimated to fall by 27% in the next five years.

There are currently 2,213 family doctors and there is a shortage of 150 doctors in that branch of medicine; 733 of those 2,213 doctors are above 60 so if something is not done, the situation will be unbearable in five years’ time, HLK head Kresimir Luetic said at the MedMed conference in Groznjan.

One-third of 248 pediatricians, who are already in short supply, will retire in the next five years, and their number will drop by 13% while the number of gynecologists will fall by 10%, it was said.

A total of 1,021 doctors, aged 36 on average, have left Croatia so far even though the numbers have been stagnating in the last two years due to the coronavirus pandemic. Most of those who have left today work in Germany, Great Britain, Switzerland, Sweden, Ireland and Austria. Another 839 doctors have sought documents required for employment abroad.

Croatia lacks a system of human resources management in the health system, Luetic says, noting that the HLK has been demanding for years a collective branch agreement for the profession, a law on wages and comprehensive reorganisation of specialist training. The shortage of physicians is also evidenced by three million hours of overtime work annually, he says.

Nurses in short supply

There is a shortage of more than 4,000 nurses, and in the next five years between 5,500 and 7,000 will meet retirement conditions, according to the Croatian Nursing Council.

A total of 38,500 nurses work currently in the health and social welfare system.

The Council calls for urgently increasing enrolment quotas for nurses by at least 50% and encouraging the employment of carers to help cope with a constant, 25% shortage of nurses, as well as for increasing their wages and securing benefits related to professions in short supply.

“In five years’ time the number of nurses will drop by an additional 25%. The interest in the profession is great but enrolment quotas are too small and we have asked the Education Ministry to increase them,” Council head Mario Gazdic said.