Croatia is a safe and stable democracy, the Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA) said in its report for 2022, singling out Russia's aggression against Ukraine as the most important event with a significant impact on all aspects of the security, political, economic, and social situation in Europe.

In its eighth annual public report SOA mentions the expulsion of “diplomats” from the Russian Embassy in Zagreb, which, it says, was due to their illegal intelligence activities. SOA notes that most of the persons expelled were intelligence agents operating in Croatia under the guise of diplomatic cover.

Risk of terrorism low, but cannot be ruled out

SOA estimates that the threat of organised attacks by terrorist groups in Croatia is still low even though attacks, primarily by lone wolves, cannot be ruled out.

It points to the return of ISIL fighters and their families from captivity in Syria to neighbouring countries, pointing to the presence, in some of the Western Balkan countries, of Salafi jihadist communities that do not recognise official Muslim communities and home countries’ democratic order and have charismatic leaders.

Despite the 2020 attack on the government building in Zagreb, Croatia is still a society in which no extremism – religious, ideological or ethnic alike – has a significant foothold or public support and consequently the potential to destabilise national security, SOA says, but notes that it has detected attempts by individuals with extremist and militant views to organise their followers into paramilitary structures with the aim of organising their military training and procuring weapons.

19 sponsored cyber attacks in 2022

SOA also notes that news portals and online social platforms are used in intelligence activities against Croatia.

Speaking about cyber security, it notes that it has developed the SK@UT system, which serves as a “cyber umbrella” to deter attacks on more than 60 state agencies and operators of critical infrastructure.

In 2022 SOA confirmed 19 state-sponsored cyber attacks on targets in Croatia. In 2021 there were 14 such attacks and in 2020 there were 12 such attacks.

There has also been an increase in the number of groups that attack targets in Croatia, SOA says, noting that the attackers are mostly connected with Russian intelligence services, with the ministries of foreign affairs and defence having been targeted the most.

SOA notes that it continues to expand the competencies of its Cyber Security Centre, notably through the process of aligning national procedures and regulations with European cyber security directives.

SOA points to the launching of the LNG terminal on the island of Krk as an important factor of energy security and gas source diversification, which, it says, has proven to be of exceptional importance in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia.

State of affairs in neighbouring countries

In reference to the developments in Croatia’s neighbourhood, SOA notes that the political circumstances in Bosnia and Herzegovina are still marked by the internal political instability caused primarily by different views of the constituent peoples on the future Constitutional and legal organisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Furthermore, a lack of Serbian-Albanian agreement on Kosovo contributes to the instability of the region.

Social rifts in Montenegro, where political parties with the anti-NATO and pro-Serbia and pro-Russia agenda play a significant role, bring about uncertainties in the Western Balkans.

SOA recalls that Serbia has not imposed sanctions on Russia and that pro-Russian sentiment is spread throughout its population. Since late 2022, Russia Today (RT Balkans) broadcaster has been active on Serbia’s media landscape.

Some policymakers in that country promote the “Serbian world” as a concept for spreading Serbia’s political, economic, cultural and religious influence. The report highlights Serbian-Montenegrin organised criminal groups as elements that destablise the security circumstances in the region.

The Croatian agency concludes that rivalries and conflicts between those groups could spill over to Croatia’s territory.

War crimes, counter-corruption measures, illegal migrations

SOA reiterates its commitment to efforts to establish what happened to people who have been unaccounted-for since the 1991-1995 Homeland War.

The agency undertakes to counter corruption and in this regard it supports the prosecution and law enforcement authorities in their anti-corruption campaigns.

The report describes irregular migrations as a significant challenge, notably when it comes to identifying individuals with ulterior criminal or terrorist intent.

In the second half of 2022, a number of migrants from Russia, notably those with Chechen background, increased.

SOA conducted 6,626 security and surveillance checks in 2022.