With one day to go before the midterm elections, Americans face a choice that could shape the nation for years after a campaign that left it politically torn, at war with itself over race, and mourning tragedy.

Voters must decide on Tuesday whether to constrain President Donald Trump and his compliant Republicans after the first two years of a demagogic presidency that widened national divides and unfolded in a torrent of scandal. Trump also tested constitutional norms and engineered a sharp shift in the country’s attitude toward the rest of the world.

Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party’s 55 percent to 42 percent advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10-point edge they held just after Labor Day.

But as they face their first chance to judge Trump’s performance, they could also register satisfaction with a historically primed economy and a President who has kept many of his election promises, however controversial, and is running an undeniably consequential administration that has managed to engineer a generational conservative shift to the Supreme Court.

Omens look poor for Republicans, since Trump’s approval rating sits between 40 and 45 percent in most polls and history suggests that first-term presidents who are that unpopular typically lead their parties to heavy losses.
Democrats are increasingly confident they can recapture the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years and are banking on a backlash against the President from voters who stayed home in 2016. Their path to power lies through more diverse, suburban and affluent districts where Trump’s cultural warfare plays poorly.

But Trump’s ironclad loyalty from a political base that sees him as a hero and a guardian of traditional, largely white, working-class life means that Republicans are strong favourites to keep the Senate, as vulnerable Democrats fight for political life in states where Trump won big two years ago like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and Montana.

The most likely outcome agreed upon by pollsters and pundits on Tuesday is one that would eloquently enshrine America’s polarization – Democrats would win a narrow majority in the House and Republicans would keep the Senate, and possibly gain a few seats.

Such a scenario would represent a significant threat to the White House, since it would empower Democratic committee chairmen to subject the White House to unprecedented scrutiny on everything from Trump’s tax returns and business dealings to scandal in government agencies.

Should Democrats trigger a “blue wave” that sweeps away the Senate as well as the House, all bets are off for the Trump presidency. There would be questions asked about his fear-laden campaign strategy and how it could lead to an even bigger disaster in the 2020 presidential campaign that effectively begins on Wednesday morning.

If the GOP clings to the House and keeps the Senate, Trump would likely claim validation for his hardline leadership rooted in keeping his political base intact and vilifying opponents. That could enhance his power in a purge of restraining influences in his Cabinet that would augur a tumultuous period at home and abroad until November 2020.

The President’s reputation for defying every political convention and omen would remain intact. And Democrats would have failed — yet again — to frame an effective counter-narrative to the President’s strongman rule.

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