Economic analyst Damir Novotny was a guest on the morning programme "Novi dan" with Tihomir Ladisic and discussed the results of the US elections and Donald Trump’s policies.

Novotny explained that Trump plans to continue the policies he pursued during his previous term in office: “Lowering the tax burden on corporate income, lowering income tax, closing borders, increasing tariffs and maintaining anti-immigration policies. These are not new measures, but the result of profound tectonic social and economic shifts in the US over the last two decades. It appeals very effectively to emerging social groups.”

“Trump didn’t conquer the Republicans – they invented him”

“Trump did not conquer the Republican Party; on the contrary, the Republicans as a political entity invented Trump,” the analyst continued.

When asked whether Trump could quickly improve the standard of living of Americans, Novotny said: “By lowering corporate and income taxes, the effects of such policies will be noticeable in the short term, but in the medium term they are harmful and can even lead to destructive and long-term dangers.”

Novotny commented on the wave of discontent in the USA: “We can draw parallels with Europe, including Croatia, with the feeling that we used to live better and work less. How is society polarising? An elite group is emerging that earns well in industries such as film and IT — these are the people who supported Harris, but it wasn’t enough. The middle class, people without sufficient knowledge or education, used to earn well because their labour costs were embedded in expensive products.”

“People without talent or knowledge voted for Trump”

“Their products no longer have the value they once had. Now these products are made in China and other countries. These people have lost well-paid, low-skilled jobs. Things are changing radically now,” Novotny added.

Novotny emphasised that there is room in America for people with talent and knowledge: “People without talent or knowledge voted for Trump. He promises them a lot — higher wages, lower taxes.”

“That’s why he’s won big business supporters like Elon Musk, who are in favour of lower corporate taxes. But how will he finance that? He’s going to have budget deficits. Where will he make up the difference? He thinks it will be through higher tariffs,” Novotny said.

“Croatia will not feel the effects”

When asked whether Trump’s policies, particularly the tariff increases, could trigger a recession in Europe and what that would mean for Croatia, Novotny replied: “A complete shutdown of the US could potentially stall global growth. The European Union is not so susceptible to recessions — recessions come and go. The bigger problem here is stagnation; the German economy is stagnating, as is the Japanese economy. This will also happen to the European Union.”

“Croatia has a marginal economy on the fringes of everything, but it remains close to the large, developed markets in Central Europe. It is unlikely to feel the effects of these global tectonic changes in the next few years,” Novotny concluded.