Duration of pandemic and EU funds to influence EU economic recovery

The pandemic is evolving by the day, making any forecast subject to high uncertainty, said the commissioner in Brussels after the European Commission outlined Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast.

Overall, EU GDP is forecast to contract by 7.4% this year, before growing 4.1% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. For the euro area, the growth is to be negative, -7.8% in 2020, positive 4.2% in 2021, +3.0% in 2022.

Gentiloni called on the European Council and the European Parliament to reach agreement on the Multiannual Financial Framework and on NextGenerationEU as soon as possible.

According to the Commission's simulations, the funds from that plan can result in a growth of up to 2% of GDP in the years of its active operation.

"Moreover, NextGenerationEU will be a strong tool to counter the divergence between countries that I have mentioned, since most of the countries hardest hit according to our forecast are also part of the group of Member States receiving the largest grant contributions, for example Croatia, Italy, Portugal and Spain and Greece," he added.

"So, it's essential that we see a swift agreement in the ongoing negotiations on NextGenerationEU so that this game-changing programme of investment and reform can get underway and start supporting the recovery and transformation of our economies."