Incumbent President Zoran Milanovic, a fierce critic of NATO and the EU, secured a commanding lead over his opponent from the ruling HDZ party, but narrowly failed to win in the first round.

Milanovic, who Politico compares to Donald Trump because of his populism, received 49.09% of the vote in the first round. Second-placed Dragan Primorac, the candidate of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, received only 19.35%. The second round of the election will take place on 12 January.

Split at the top of the state

This result continues the split at the top of the country. Although the presidency is largely a ceremonial role, the re-election of Milanovic – the country’s most popular politician – would be a thorn in the side of his biggest rival Plenkovic, writes Politico.

In his victory speech in Zagreb, Milanovic promised to “promote “a Croatia with an attitude, a Croatia that looks after its interests and knows that only we care about what happens in our country”

Following the announcement of the results, Prime Minister Plenkovic welcomed the progress of his party’s candidate to the second round. “A new game begins tomorrow,” he said.

He explained that Milanovic had no programme and was pulling Croatia to the east. During the election campaign, Milanovic had tried to capitalise on a series of scandals that led to the resignation or dismissal of more than 30 ministers from the prime minister’s party during Plenkovic’s time in office.

Primorac burdened by the recent scandal

He also criticised Plenkovic for his pro-European stance and called him the “errand boy” of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He described immigration as one of the biggest challenges facing Croatia.

On the other hand, Plenkovic argued that this election was crucial for Croatia’s future and called Milanovic “the cancer of Croatian politics.”

Ivan Grdesic, professor of political science at Libertas International University in Zagreb, said that geopolitics alone cannot compensate for Dragan Primorac’s weaknesses. One of them is that Primorac is not charismatic enough to gain broad support.

“I think he is just a little bit too sophisticated in some of his debates,” added Grdesic, who has served as Croatia’s ambassador to the UK and the US.

Politico also notes that Primorac has been further burdened by the recent scandal surrounding former Health Minister Vili Beros. He was dismissed and arrested after the European Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into allegations of corruption against him in November.