The Foreign Policy Research Institute warned in a report that Serbia is a threat to regional security and that it can't democratize without a brave and sincere leadership.

“The time has come to openly regard the Republic of Serbia for what it is: A stalwart Russian and Chinese ally run by a semi-authoritarian government that proactively pursues ideologically irredentist territorial expansion in the Western Balkans. Today’s Serbia poses a threat to regional and transatlantic security,” the report said.

It said that the Serbian government under President Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has been “rapidly building up its military, overtly backing ultranationalist provocateurs in neighboring states, cementing Belgrade’s ties to Moscow, and consolidating partnerships with China” adding that the senior clergy of the Serbian and Russian Orthodox Churches are cooperating closely and in concert with their respective political leaders as part of efforts to realize the Greater Serbia ideology.

“Without a significant Westward shift in its orientation, Serbia will continue on an authoritarian trajectory aligned with US adversaries,” the report said.

According to the report, the US and European Union have wanted to see a democratic EuroAtlantic-oriented Serbia but added that most Serbians reject cooperation with NATO and are only mildly inclined towards EU membership which leave Washington and Brussels less leverage.

It warned that Western policy makers were misguided in thinking that Serbia will moderate, democratize, and gradually integrate into transatlantic institutions because that assumption diminishes the need for a national reckoning among the Serbian people. Serbia needs courageous and sincere leadership to acknowledge past sins and move the nation forward.

“A broad acknowledgment of past crimes against humanity is categorical if Serbia is ever to become a democratic and open society. Without it, Serbs will remain disproportionately susceptible to domestic irredentist forces fed by malign foreign powers set on keeping the Western Balkans removed from the transatlantic community, the report warned.

It recommended a more pragmatic approach to relations between the West and Belgrade, encouraging Serbia to focus on itself and not its neighbors. “Western policymakers would be wise to stop expecting a breakthrough in Kosovo-Serbia status negotiations. It has become an empty dialogue that only keeps Kosovo locked outside of international institutions and other benefits of recognized statehood. A revised approach should also discontinue pushing an ineffective EU integration process as the primary means of democratically transforming Serbia,” the report said.