The European Commission has revised downward the growth projection for EU economies, which continue to grow, but at a slower pace than expected, the EC says in its Summer 2023 Economic Forecast, published on Monday.

The EU economy continues to grow, albeit with reduced momentum. The forecast revises growth in the EU economy down to 0.8% in 2023, from 1% projected in the Spring Forecast, and 1.4% in 2024, from 1.7%. It also revises growth in the euro area down to 0.8% in 2023 (from 1.1%) and 1.3% in 2024 (from 1.6%).

Inflation is expected to continue to decline over the forecast horizon. Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation is now projected to reach 6.5% in 2023 (compared to 6.7% in the spring) and 3.2% in 2024 (compared to 3.1%) in the EU. In the euro area, inflation is forecast to be 5.6% in 2023 (compared to 5.8%) and 2.9% in 2024 (compared to 2.8%).

Reduced growth momentum

The latest data confirm that economic activity in the EU was subdued in the first half of 2023 on the back of the formidable shocks that the EU has endured. Weakness in domestic demand, in particular consumption, shows that high and still increasing consumer prices for most goods and services are taking a heavier toll than expected in the Spring Forecast.

This is despite declining energy prices and an exceptionally strong labour market, which has seen record low unemployment rates, continued expansion of employment, and rising wages. Meanwhile, the sharp slowdown in the provision of bank credit to the economy shows that monetary policy tightening is working its way through the economy. Survey indicators now point to slowing economic activity in the summer and the months ahead, with continued weakness in industry and fading momentum in services, despite a strong tourism season in many parts of Europe.

The global economy has fared somewhat better than anticipated in the first half of the year, despite a weak performance in China. However, the outlook for global growth and trade remains broadly unchanged compared to spring, implying that the EU economy cannot count on strong support from external demand.

The Summer 2023 Interim Economic Forecast revises growth down for the EU and the euro area in both 2023 and 2024. Headline inflation is expected to continue declining, broadly in line with the spring projections.

Retail energy prices are set to continue to increase slightly again in 2024, driven by higher oil prices. Inflation in services is set to continue moderating as demand softens, under the impact of monetary policy tightening and a fading post-COVID boost. The other non-energy components of the consumption basket will continue contributing to easing inflation over the forecast horizon, also reflecting lower input prices and normalising supply chains.